Probability and Games of Chance

Probability and Games of Chance

Probability

Probability is the likelihood or the chance of something happening and is measured by a ratio of the chances favoring the event to the whole number of cases possible (Bussell, 2013). A polygraph is used to detect lies through measuring psychological indices such as pressure, respiration, pulse and the skin conductivity while someone answers questions. Polygraphs use probabilities to detect lies in the answer of an individual comparing that with the body reaction. The data obtained from the polygraph machine and the answers are compared to determine the correct result. The most interesting thing about a polygraph test is that someone can detect the level of truth or a lie between someone’s answers and the results of the machine through the detection parameters. In a polygraph, there are two expected probabilities, and that is the subject lied when he/she told the truth known as false positive and the second probability is the polygraph showing that subject told the truth while he/she lied and this is known as a false negative.

Game chance

Probability in poker game

The poker deck has 52 cards, and each card is designated by one of four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades). A 52 cards pack contain for suits of ace, numbers one to ten,  queen, jack, and king. The odds of getting an ace or any other number as your fast card during the game is 1/13, and this is 7.7% while the odds of getting a spade, diamond, a heart or a club in the game is ¼ and that is 25%. In the poker game, each card received changes the deck constitution, e.g., if someone in the game gets a certain suit from the set there are only three other sets left for that suit (Bussell, 2013). The probability of obtaining another suit in the set, therefore, decreased to 5.9%. This, therefore, means that it is much less than the probability was before receiving the first suit.

Probability in Punto Banco / Baccarat

In this game, there are three bets, and therefore there are three probabilities when playing the game. In this game, the most important thing is to consider the likelihood of each bet coming up.

Result Odds Probability
Banker win 6/5 0.458653
Player win 5/4 0.446279
Tie 9-1 0.095069

 

In the game, the expected results are Banker win with 6/5 odds and a probability of 0.458653, followed by Player win with 5/4 odds and a probability of 0.446279 then lastly a tie which is 9-1 having a probability of 0.095069 (Bussell, 2013).  In these results, the banker bet has higher chances of winning the bet as compared to the player, and the payouts are considered this gives the whole idea of how the game works.

Bet Payout House edge
Banker 95% of stake 1.06
Player 100% of stake 1.24
Tie 8 x stake 14.44

 

The banker has 95% of stake payout and 1.06 house edge as compared to the player, on the other hand, has a100% of stake payout and a 1.24 house edge and lastly the Tie which has an eight times stake and a house edge of 14.44 (Bussell, 2013). This, therefore, means that the banker bet that has a higher likelihood of winning has less payout as compared to the player bet which has a lower chance of winning the bet.  The payout of a banker is lower since the deductions of vigorous are included that is 0.5% if the banker wins the bet. The vigorous deduction lowers the chances of a banker winning below 50% and therefore allowing the game to give the player also enough chances to win the game.

References

Bussell, L. (2013). The mathematics of games. Probability with fun and games. Pleasantville, NY: Weekly Reader.

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